Academic Journal
Impact of climate change on the future distribution of three Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model.
| Title: | Impact of climate change on the future distribution of three Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Hosseini N; Department of Medicinal Plants, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Arak University, Arak, Iran., Mostafavi H; Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran., Sadeghi SMM; School of Forest, Fisheries and Geomatics Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA. |
| Source: | Integrated environmental assessment and management [Integr Environ Assess Manag] 2024 Jul; Vol. 20 (4), pp. 1046-1059. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Feb 09. |
| Abstract: | The decline of habitats supporting medicinal plants is a consequence of climate change and human activities. In the Middle East, Ferulago angulata, Ferulago carduchorum, and Ferulago phialocarpa are widely recognized for their culinary, medicinal, and economic value. Therefore, this study models these Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050 and 2070. The objective was to identify the most important bioclimatic (n = 6), edaphic (n = 4), and topographic (n = 3) variables influencing their distribution and predict changes under various climate scenarios. Findings reveal slope percentage as the most significant variable for F. angulata and F. carduchorum, while solar radiation was the primary variable for F. phialocarpa. MaxEnt modeling demonstrated good to excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve values exceeding 0.85. Projections suggest negative area changes for F. angulata and F. carduchorum (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 indicate -34.0% and -37.8% for F. phialocarpa, and -0.3% and -6.2% for F. carduchorum; additionally, predictions under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 show -39.0% and -52.2% for F. phialocarpa, and -1.33% and -9.8% for F. carduchorum), while for F. phialocarpa, a potential habitat increase (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 23.4% and 11.2%, and under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 64.4% and 42.1%) is anticipated. These insights guide adaptive management strategies, emphasizing conservation and sustainable use amid global climate change. Special attention should be paid to F. angulata and F. carduchorum due to anticipated habitat loss. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:1046-1059. © 2024 SETAC. (© 2024 SETAC.) |
| Publication Type: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Journal Info: | Publisher: Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101234521 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1551-3793 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 15513777 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Integr Environ Assess Manag Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: Pensacola, FL : Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), c2005- |
| MeSH Terms: | Climate Change* , Ecosystem*, Iran ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Models, Theoretical |
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| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Climate change; Ferulago genus; Potential distribution; Species distribution model |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20240209 Date Completed: 20240619 Latest Revision: 20240619 |
| Update Code: | 20240619 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/ieam.4898 |
| PMID: | 38334016 |
| ISSN: | 1551-3793 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/ieam.4898 |
| Database: | MEDLINE |
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